MENA Climate Change: Migration & Conflict Nexus
Analysis of climate change impacts and security risks based on Jürgen Scheffran's research
🌍 The Mediterranean: Center of the World
📜 Etymology & Geographic Significance
The name "Mediterranean" is derived from Latin and means "in the middle of the earth" - reflecting its central position in the ancient world and continued strategic importance today.
🗺️ Strategic Geographic Position
🇪🇺 EUROPE
Sphere of Influence:
- • Advanced economies & technology
- • Democratic institutions
- • Climate adaptation resources
- • Migration destination
🌍 AFRICA
Sphere of Influence:
- • Resource abundance
- • Population growth
- • Climate vulnerability
- • Migration sources
🌏 ASIA
Sphere of Influence:
- • Energy resources (oil/gas)
- • Geopolitical tensions
- • Water scarcity issues
- • Regional conflicts
🌊 MEDITERRANEAN SEA
"In the Middle of the Earth"
Connects & Separates • Historical Battleground
⚔️ Historical Significance
🏛️ Ancient Times
Civilizations became models for hegemonic power projections elsewhere
💥 World Wars
A battleground and zone of conflict between major powers
🌐 Cold War → Today
Continued zone of conflict between superpowers and their allies
🔍 Research Question
"How does climate change function as a trigger of migration and conflict in the Mediterranean region?"
Key Sub-Questions:
- What are the linkages between environmental degradation, resource scarcity, and violent conflict?
- How do climate impacts interact with existing geopolitical tensions?
- What role did climate factors play in events like the Arab Spring and Syrian civil war?
- How can regional cooperation address climate-security challenges?
📋 Main Arguments
🎯 Primary Thesis
Climate change serves as a risk multiplier that exacerbates existing vulnerabilities and can trigger conflict and migration in the already geopolitically volatile Mediterranean region.
⚖️ MENA Vulnerability Pattern
MENA countries usually have higher vulnerability, lower adaptive capacity, more conflicts and weaker institutions compared to Europe, but also considerable potential for low-carbon solar energy and land resources.
🌊 Mediterranean as Shared Space
Scheffran's foundational thought: the Mediterranean must be understood as a shared space, requiring a transition towards cooperation, resilience and sustainability rather than continued securitization.
🔗 Interconnected Crises
Climate impacts create cascading effects through the water-food-energy nexus, affecting multiple sectors simultaneously and requiring coordinated responses.
📚 Historical Evidence
The Arab Spring and Syrian civil war demonstrate how climate stressors can contribute to political instability when combined with other factors, proving the need for preventive cooperation.
⚔️ Conflict Zones
Countries experiencing climate-related armed conflicts and civil wars
💧 Water Crises
Nations facing severe water scarcity and transboundary disputes
👥 Migration Sources
Countries with significant climate-induced displacement
☀️ Drought Affected
Regions experiencing severe droughts and agricultural failures